The Potential Sleeper Movie Hits of Summer 2009

Posted by CoolerKing

The likely hits of the upcoming summer movie season - films like Terminator Salvation or Angels & Demons - seem even easier to spot than most previous years. Sure, there's probably reason for producers to be a little bit nervous about the box office potential of films like Land of the Lost and G.I. Joe, but most of the big movies scheduled for summer 2009 feel like fastballs down the middle – guaranteed hits. But, if that's the case, where will the surprises come from? Will there be a movie that comes completely out of left field to make a huge splash critically or commercially? Could there be a My Big Fat Greek Wedding or a surprising performer like Superbad in the mix or will we be faced by another boring summer where the movies with tie-in toys at fast-food restaurants and video games based on them rule the roost and everything else falls away? The last few summers have been a little brutal when it comes to unexpected variety, but this one looks very promising. Month by month, here’s a sneak preview of the movies that we think could possibly steal a little thunder from the marketplace and grab a headline, some cash, or year-end awards. Maybe even all three.

- Brian Tallerico

MAY SLEEPERS

The first month of summer is dominated by major franchise pics with Wolverine, James T. Kirk, John Connor, Tom Hanks, Ben Stiller, and Pixar leading what will almost certainly be one of the most financially successful months in movie history… maybe ever. Consequently, I don't think anything unpredictable will emerge from this all-star pack of movies. The true sleepers will have to wait until June or July.

But it's not a lost cause if you don't like waiting in line for typical summer movie product. There will be at least three interesting arthouse alternatives in May.

Sasha Grey in Steven Soderbergh's "The Girlfriend Experience"

A lot of movie fans will be ecstatic to see that Jim Jarmusch (The Limits of Control on May 1st) and Steven Soderbergh (The Girlfriend Experience on May 22nd) have new works to off-set films like Night at the Museum 2, Star Trek, and X-Men Origins: Wolverine, but those movies probably aren't going to make much more of an impact than the previous smaller films of their directors. When Soderbergh goes low-budget with films like Bubble or Full Frontal, he rarely makes much of a splash beyond the critics. The excellent poster, incredible tagline (“See it with someone you ****”), and sexy subject matter of The Girlfriend Experience may bring in some buzz, but don't expect most people to know it exists. It doesn't have real sleeper potential. Neither does Limits of Control, even though Jarmusch fans will be excited to see a new Jim film for the first time in four years (since Broken Flowers). Finally, the Oscar-winner for Best Foreign Language Film, Departures (May 29th), gets a wide release in May. And I do mean “finally”. Does anyone else think this would have made a bigger splash in March or April? Will people even remember it won an Oscar after the summer has begun?

Bill Murray in Jim Jarmusch's "The Limits of Control"

JUNE SLEEPERS

Call it the sleeper month. Big films like Land of the Lost and The Proposal seem far-from-guaranteed hits, meaning at least one film from this section will probably be a surprise hit. That is, unless everyone just takes a break from movie-going between Up and Transformers 2. June features several films with big sleeper potential including works by major filmmakers new and old, a former sleeper star trying to break out, one of our favorite character actors, and a comedy that we think could easily become the breakout of the season.

Let's start with the laugher. Maybe it's not fair to list a film with Warner Brothers' studio power and the director of Old School (Todd Phillips) in a sleeper feature, but it doesn't feel like anyone's paying attention to The Hangover (June 5th) yet, a low-budget black comedy about three guys (Bradley Cooper, Ed Helms, and Zach Galifianakis) who lose their bachelor buddy after a crazy night in Vegas and have to retrace their steps to find him. For some reason, all the films in early summer 2008 were either male-driven blockbusters or counter-programmed female-aimed comedies like Made of Honor, What Happens in Vegas, and Sex and the City. I think guys will be looking for an adult comedy after the wave of action in May, and The Hangover will be much bigger than everyone expects.

Zach Galifianakis, Bradley Cooper, and Ed Helms in Todd Phillips' "The Hangover"

Of course, this season has Hollywood's attempts at female-driven counter-programming (the fancy phrase to avoid the over-used term "chick flick"), but I don't think anyone will be surprised if The Proposal or Ghosts of Girlfriends Past makes a decent amount of cash. Could there be a sleeper in the bunch? Nia Vardalos sure hopes so. The star of the ultimate sleeper, My Big Fat Greek Wedding, returns in two high-profile films this year – My Life in Ruins (June 5th) and I Hate Valentine's Day (July 3rd). The first co-stars Richard Dreyfus, Harland Williams, and Rachel Dratch with Nia playing a character finding romance in Greece from director Donald Petrie (Miss Congeniality, How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days). No, we're not kidding. We like to go into everything with an open mind, but, on paper, this sounds like what they would use to torture us on 24. But quality doesn't equal box office potential and My Life in Ruins has a shot at sleeper status. Vardalos' second film, I Hate Valentine's Day, is her passion project, as the star directs from her own script and the project reunites her with Greek Wedding star John Corbett. Quality concerns aside, they both have sleeper potential.

The real indie sleeper of the season will very likely be Sam Mendes' Away We Go (June 5th). Just six months after the release of his divisive Revolutionary Road, Mendes turns to a low-budget, indie film co-written by literary icon Dave Eggers. The film, about a couple (John Krasinski, Maya Rudolph) trying to find a perfect place to start their family, screams sleeper hit. With a supporting cast that includes Maggie Gyllenhaal, Paul Schneider, Allison Janney, Catherine O'Hara, and Jeff Daniels, Away We Go feels like it could easily become an indie smash and actually surpass the gross of Mendes' much-more high-profile last film with his wife and her BFF (which only made $23 million domestically).

Sam Rockwell in Duncan Jones' "Moon"

The son of David Bowie, Duncan Jones, heads to the world of blue cheese in his indie sci-fi film with one of our favorite actors, Sam Rockwell, called Moon (June 12th). Expect hundreds of bloggers and critics to reference "Space Oddity" in their headlines about the movie. Moon made a decent splash at Sundance and, when I spoke to Rockwell last year, he couldn't stop talking about how much he liked this little film about an astronaut near the end of a three-year stint on the orbiting rock. Low-budget sci-fi doesn't usually make a huge splash at the box office, but if you're looking for the sleeper film most likely to become a beloved cult classic, this is probably at the top of the list.

Can a Woody Allen movie be a sleeper? With Larry David and Evan Rachel Wood in Whatever Works (June 19th), if it's as good we think Allen’s return to NYC is going to be, we definitely think it can. Last year's Vicky Cristina Barcelona made more than any Allen-directed film since Hannah and Her Sisters. The question is if he'll dip again to Scoop or Melinda and Melinda box office levels or if he'll bounce back with another hit, something he rarely does. Two Allen hits in a row hardly ever happens. But it has a pretty good chance of happening this year. Still riding the positive buzz from VCB and perfectly counter-programming against The Taking of Pelham 123 and Transformers 2, I predict that Whatever Works will be another big hit for this legendary director.

Larry David, Henry Cavill, and Evan Rachel Wood in Woody Allen's "Whatever Works"

Could we get our first major Oscar contender at the end of June? Keep an eye on Cheri (June 26th), Stephen Frears' first film since The Queen. The director of Dirty Pretty Things, High Fidelity, The Grifters, and Dangerous Liaisons returns with a lavish period piece that screams Oscar, at least in the technical categories, if not for the purported return of Michelle Pfeiffer to a nomination-worthy role. Cheri is not going to make a box office splash, but this could easily be the awards-season sleeper six months early.

JULY SLEEPERS

Speaking of awards, Kathryn Bigelow's The Hurt Locker (July 10th) has won a few and is certainly one of our most anticipated films of the season. After the film divided audiences at Venice and Toronto's film festivals last year, Summit looked like they could play Locker's momentum into the awards season of 2008. But, because they were busy counting their Twilight money and wanted to position this for 2009 awards, Summit delayed what looks like it could be the first great Iraq War movie. It's been building buzz for months and could easily be a sleeper hit for a studio that is quietly turning into a major player for more than just the bloodsuckers.

Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Zooey Deschanel in Marc Webb's "(500) Days of Summer"

I adore both Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Zooey Deschanel, so, even if there had been no positive buzz on (500) Days of Summer (July 17th) at ALL, I'd see this without even one word about the plot. Music-video director Marc Webb's romantic story about a year-and-a-half in the life of a young couple made a big splash at Sundance, becoming one of the few films to really build a wave of buzz from Park City in 2009. Fox Searchlight, the studio that has mastered building buzz for small films like Little Miss Sunshine, Juno, and Slumdog Millionaire, will be managing Summer and I'll be stunned if this isn't a huge hit into the fall. If this feature was a ranked list, (500) Days of Summer would be the "#1 Most Likely Sleeper Hit". Maybe Zooey and Joseph will finally be the household names they deserve to be.

Here's where things get tricky. Late July and August are usually a wasteland for quality summer movie product. If you've got a great indie film, why wouldn't you hold it till awards season? Why let it get lost in the exhaustion from the dog days of summer? So, pickings start to get slim. There's no Away We Go, (500) Days of Summer, or The Hurt Locker after mid-July. The long-anticipated All the Boys Love Mandy Lane (July 17th) is intriguing for us horror nuts and Andrew Jarecki's (Capturing the Friedmans) original dramatic film with Ryan Gosling in the lead called All Good Things (July 24th) could be great. Anything Gosling leads could be great. We love Vera Farmiga but her second crazy-kid summer movie, Orphan (July 24th), sounds a bit too much like Joshua to really be a potential sleeper. Another bad kid horror movie? From the director of House of Wax? Ummmm. Too many risk factors there. Which moves us to...

Peter Sarsgaard and Vera Farmiga in Jaume Collet-Serra's "Orphan"

AUGUST SLEEPERS

And things don't get much better. David Twohy (Pitch Black) can be an interesting filmmaker and his working with Steve Zahn, Milla Jovovich, and Timothy Olyphant in A Perfect Getaway (August 14th) could be the thriller of the season. Twohy's first directorial effort since the Riddick franchise collapsed has late-season sleeper potential. As for an August sleeper that might warrant consideration at the end of 2009 when critics and guilds are handing out awards? Look no further than Ang Lee's Taking Woodstock (August 14th), the Academy Award-winning director's look at the planning and execution of the most famous music festival in history. Lee and Woodstock? They don't seem like 100% natural fits but this multi-talented director should have attention paid every time he makes a film. Taking Woodstock could be the film that ushers audiences from the summer blockbuster to the fall drama.

"Taking Woodstock"

From the looks of it, summer 2009 has more potential than average for providing a variety of product from sequels to comic book movies to films by Oscar-winning directors like Woody Allen, Sam Mendes, and Ang Lee. From guaranteed hits to sleeper surprises and everything between, we haven't been this excited about a movie season in a long, long time.

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