Schwab's Sonders: The Bright Side of America's 'Lost Decade' in Stocks

As the market continues to hold its gains since the Nov. 20 lows, more observers are starting to think that was an important bottom, including many who were previously cautious on stocks.

Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., is not a market timer and does not claim to know if Nov. 20 was "the" bottom. ("Nobody knows," she adds.)

But many of the signs of a bottom have been evident in recent weeks, she says, noting:

• Cash levels in 401(k) accounts reached an all-time high in October, a sign investor sentiment hit extremely bearish levels, a contrarian indicator.
• As of November 2008, the 10-year return for the S&P 500 matched its worst performance in history. Because of mean reversion, bad (or, in this case, awful) 10-year returns typically lead to positive 10-year returns going forward.
• Treasury yields falling to zero — and negative for short periods — is a sign of panic among investors who would rather lock in a quantifiable loss vs. risk putting money to work in "riskier" assets.

"Treasuries has truly been the only asset class that's saved you," Sonders says. "That may continue for a while but I'm safe in saying I guarantee it's not going to last forever. At some point investors are going to want to take some risk in order to get some semblance of a return."

Posted Dec 18, 2008 10:03am EST by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession