How to win your office NCAA bracket

Picking The Champ

First things first: If you miss on the team that goes all the way, it's going to seriously put a damper on your chances of winning the whole thing. And even if you get hammered in the pool, at least you called the big one.

Tiernan says that 15 of the last 17 champions have possessed six key attributes. Those teams:

• Are seeded 1 through 4
• Come from a Big Six Conference (i.e., Pac 10, SEC, ACC, Big 12, Big 10, Big East)
• Went to the previous year's tournament
• Have a coach who has been to the tourney at least 5 times
• Score more than 77 points per game
• Win by an average of at least 10 points per game over the course of the season

Only 4 teams meet all those conditions:

• North Carolina
• Duke
• Kansas
• Tennessee

General Strategies

• Just pick the higher seed. Most of the time you're right. Depending on how your bracket is set up – some reward picking upsets – your mileage could vary. Also, if you really want to win a big pool, like ESPN's, you have to take more risks.
• Go with your gut. We call this one, "The Decider". Just stare at each pair of teams until you see the truth revealed about which one will win. It's sort of like those 3D stereograms where you if you look at it the right way, you get the illusion of 3D, except in this case, it's actually seeing the fourth dimension.
• Consult a seer. There are several statistical evaluation methods. Tiernan runs statistical regressions looking for team profiles that have done well in the past. Other systems, like Ken Pom's possession-based analysis, and Jeff Sagarin's ratings, have predictive value as well. In particular, they can reveal teams that are underrated relative to their seed, like Wisconsin. To use them, just pick the team with the higher number in the right hand column. Ken Pom calls it the Pythag and Sagarin has the "predictor".
• Pick the fiercer mascot. It is clear that the UCLA's back-to-back Final Fours are due to our mascot, the Bruin (a bear). They've only lost to the Florida Gators, and everyone knows that an alligator would totally beat a bear in a steel cage match.

Pick A Good Coach

There are overachievers and there are underachievers in the coaching ranks, and you don't want to pick the wrong kind.

Here are the top coaches in overperforming their seed expectation.

• Steve Fisher, San Diego State
• John Beilein, Michigan
• Rick Pitino, Louisville
• Billy Donovan, Florida
• Tom Izzo, Michigan State
• John Thompson III, Georgetown
• Ben Howland, UCLA
• Mike Krzyzewski, Duke

We didn't get a full list of the underachievers, but I will say this: watch out for Kansas and North Carolina. Those coaches have been known to win less often than you would expect.

Video

UCLA's Russell Westbrook dunking all over Jamal Boykin. Note the announcer in the YouTube video declaring, "That's called being YouTubed!"

Tips & Tricks

Tip: Teams that come into the tournament winning 8 or more games in a row tend to underachieve. Bad news for: UCLA, North Carolina, Kansas

Tip: The teams that are more frontcourt dominant in terms of scoring overachieve. Good news for: Louisville, Xavier, Stanford

Tip: Over the last 23 years, the Pac 10 has been the worst performing conference. Bad news for: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC, Oregon, Arizona

Tip: Never pick a champion lower than 4 seed. Bad news for: The 48 teams seeded 5-16.

Tip: Never pick a final four contender lower than a 6 seed. Bad news for: the 40 teams seeded 7-16.

Tip: Never pick a bigger upset than a 12 over a 5.

Tip: Never pick a midmajor to the final four. Bad news for: Memphis, and all the other non Big 6 conference teams

Tip: Pick teams that shoot a lot of three pointers. That means someone high up this list.